The UK Elections: Interview with Political Analyst & Editor of The Duran, Adam Garrie
Introduction: Had a chance to talk with friend and colleague, Adam Garrie - political analyst & Editor of The Duran. We got into the nuts and bolts of the elections taking place, as we speak, in the UK. We cover a whole host of subjects regarding the elections and Adam never disappoints when it comes to having great insight into the British body politic. ER: What do the UK elections look like thus far Adam? AG: I think it's important not to trust the polls but I think it will be a hung Parliament with Jeremy Corbyn leading some sort of pact with the Scottish Nationalists, that being said it's really too close to call ER: So, a deadlocked parliament with Corbyn - possibly - at the helm? AG: In many ways I think that's a highly likely scenario. That being said, I predicted confidently that Trump would win and on this one I'm far less sure I think US voters were slightly more informed on the candidates ER: You mean in the US Presidential race, right? I found they were far less informed when it came to Congressional candidates. AG: Yes in the Presidential race I think in Congressional races the only reason the Republicans won the House was because of the 'Trump effect' more people saw and 'R' next to his name than they paid attention to the lackluster Congressional campaign. ER: Exactly. ER: How does it look for Galloway? AG: Very tight but I think he will win. But again, very tight. I'm hoping he'll win. He's one of the only UK politicians I like. ER: Yes, me too. AG: Fingers crossed on that one. ER: What will UKIP look like after today? Will the gain or lose seats, overall, in parliament? AG: Right now, they only have one and it is looking unlikely if they'll even keep that one. I think they're finished as a party. They were a one issue party with no real personalities except for Farage who is more or less doing media full time now. They're finished as a party. ER: Studying this election led me to that conclusion as well. AG: Yes, I think they may continue as a fringe group for a bit longer but not much more will come of them. When you campaign on one issue and then you get it, 'what's the point' and most people tend to agree. ER: And on that one issue, they had a support that was many kilometers wide, but only a few centimeters deep. AG: Very true. ER: It seems that no poll, at this time (and I know what you've said about polls) has Labour ahead. Why do you believe that is? If they're wrong, why are they getting it wrong? AG: The most likely reason is because many young people and others who have simply never voted before may come out and vote and in almost all of those cases that will mean Corbyn voters. This is one of the reasons Trump won, he got non-voters out to vote. There have been more last minute attempts to register to vote in this election than ever before in recent UK history. If these people remember to come out and vote, they will be votes for Corbyn and most pollsters hardly factor this in ER: I agree. The rare/non-voter movement is unpredictable and can be extremely disruptive to any election model. AG: This will probably be the most important thing to look out for. In the US when young people get angry and vote, outside of major cities it's often to vote right, in the UK it's generally to vote left and unlike in the states, in the UK most young people are either in big towns or cities. In the US it is more evenly spread England has no real suburbs being the reason. Just bloated towns, cities and the countryside which is increasingly a retirement home. ER: I think the young voter doesn't vote against, or for, left or right, they vote against the incumbent. They tend to vote against the establishment - no matter what that establishment is ideologically or politically. At least that's my take on this. AG: Very True. ER: What's more likely Adam: conservatives lose their majority, and as a result May is ousted from power OR conservatives lose their majority and May holds on to power within the party but governs with the help of the DUP in Northern Ireland? AG: I think it is more likely that they lose their majority and she resigns. Privately, she's deeply unpopular even among conservative voters. ER: Why the unpopularity? AG: She's a deeply grim individual with essentially no expertise in anything, she's unfriendly and incapable and does not know how to debate. She also doesn't really know what she stands for. ER: It may have been easier to ask what's likable about her. Hahaha. AG: HAHAHAHAHA. Very true. Can't think of anything. Hahaha. ER: More likely scenario: Corbyn forming a minority government supported on a vote-by-vote basis by the SNP, Lib Dems and a collection of small parties OR Corbyn wins outright and leads a Labour renaissance? AG: I think the first of those two scenarios is the most likely but again almost impossible to say on t his particular election. Adam’s closing thought: Hope it turns out to be true, the conservatives could still get in...they really ought to be called the corporatists as there is nothing conservative about them, but time will tell. ER: Yes it will. Thanks Adam.